Thursday, April 10, 2008

Point of no return

If it's still early morning where you are, this ought to help wake you up.

The Great Steyn [blessings upon him]:

"...of the G8 nations, three - Russia, Japan, Germany - are already in net population decline, and Italy's about to join them. Maybe that's because 17 European nations are already at or below what demographers call "lowest-low" fertility (1.3 children per couple) - a point from which no society in human history has ever recovered. Maybe that's because in its most recent analysis the U.N. Population Division reported:

The indigenous populations of most countries in the rich world will either stagnate or decline…. The 2006 population revision predicts the steady depopulation of vast areas of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union as a result of high levels of emigration and birth rates running persistently below replacement levels. Bulgaria’s population will fall by 35 per cent by 2050; Ukraine’s will plummet by 33 per cent, Russia’s by one quarter, whilst Britain’s population will rise from 60 million to approaching 69 million by 2050—almost entirely because of immigration. The expected global upheaval is without parallel in human history.

I'm feeling a bit bloody-minded, so let's revisit the numbers, shall we?

Britain - 1.66

Canada - 1.61

Russia - 1.39

"Belgium" - 1.64

Portugal - 1.48

Spain - 1.29

Ireland - 1.86


Anonymous said...

Is this the third time you've put up these statistics? I think it is important to mention what we all know but often forget: statistics are not usually saying what they seem to say, or what we think they say.

If Italy has reached "a point from which no society in human history has ever recovered." what does that mean?

Nothing if we consider that accurate demographic data doesn't go back more than two hundred years--and that's only for the more civilized places.

Moreover, if "Italy" were to disintegrate due to a massive population decrease, like it did during the 5th century (Rome went from a population of 1 million to 20-30 thousand all through the middle ages until the 15th century) I would hardly consider that a pity. "Italy" is not older than 1870.

Life for people like the Drummonds would probably not be affected much, and they are the type of people we really care about.

Just think, with the collapse of the modern super-state, migration, international trade, and intercontinental warfare would come to an end. England, or more probably, some more localized government divisions thereof would automatically achieve that blessed isolation you so often talk about, and an authentically local economy would develop. That is what you want, after all, isn't it?

Hilary Jane Margaret White said...

Well, yes. Actually, as you know, I'm not entirely against such a result. But there are other factors. There are a lot of non-civilized people living cheek-by-jowl who stand to inherit what is not rightfully theirs and who will not look after it properly.

I think that's what bothers me most.

And anyway! How dare you come in here and put a damper on my doom-saying. What are you, Mr. Happyface?

Go dance around a tree if you think everything is so peachy.


Hilary Jane Margaret White said...

...and with the collapse of the modern superstate, there goes international trade...

and most important:


Zach said...


The real motivation for the Empire, wot?

Zach said...

More seriously ... Have you been following the argument between Steve Stirling and the author of Caliphate over at Dale's place?

Stirling claims that Steyn's numbers are (ahem) selectively produced and ignore the more recent demographic results showing that birthrates of immigrants are plummeting also.

His argument is that Urban Modernity is equally effective at suppressing the fertility of Muslim populations as it is of post-Christian ones.

I'm not quite sure what to make of that ... I can't tell whether that's a comforting thought or even more deeply disturbing.

I wonder when the ZPG zealots will realize that they've won?


Hilary Jane Margaret White said...

the more recent demographic results showing that birthrates of immigrants are plummeting also.

No, I've not been over to Dale's today, but this is something I've heard elsewhere and I'd be very interested in looking at some source material.

There are other factors than willful mass cultural suicide, secularism and rampant materialism involved in the demographic collapse. I've heard people talk about a 'fertility crisis', esp. here in Britain where more and more people can't have children, but no one seems to know why.

I read PD James' Children of Men, and she was working then with some stats that show there is something much larger even than social trends happening.

Someone else I know maintains that the pervasiveness of the sex-culture is making people not want to engage in relations at all. Someone else showed me some numbers lately that indicate men are more insterested in porn than the real live breathing woman lying next to them every night.

I don't know. but there can be no doubt that we're in for an interesting second half.

Anonymous said...

Well you all might be goofing off, but I'm still working on at least 4 babies per this white Western woman. - Karen

Anonymous said...

Can you move to the Czech Republic? It looks like they could use a consultant on how to produce babies.